9:32:19 AM <bowser07> oh hey supershroom
9:32:28 AM <bowser07> didn't notice you there
9:32:54 AM <bowser07> If I had known you were on chat I would have told you about the level here and not with a pm
9:34:11 AM <Shroom> yeah, I'll look at it later
9:34:15 AM <Shroom> right now I'm doing math a bit
9:35:08 AM <bowser07> what sort of math?
9:35:42 AM <bowser07> just random math?
9:36:35 AM <Shroom> no, probability theory
9:36:44 AM <Shroom> and it's NOT what you imagine, lol
9:37:47 AM <bowser07> oh. So it's not as easy as "If i flip a coin, I'll have a 50.000000000001% chance of getting a tails if I use a 10 cent coin."
9:38:46 AM <Shroom> well, at university you have a very abstract approach to mathematical context
9:39:17 AM <Shroom> one of the theorems being proved in this lecture is the "Strong law of large numbers"
9:40:30 AM <Shroom> it's one of the most difficult lectures at all, but I take the challenge
9:40:48 AM <bowser07> cool. I always knew you liked math, but I never thought you loved it that much.
9:41:15 AM <bowser07> I don't really know anyone who studies it as seriously as you do.
9:41:49 AM <Shroom> well, I've heard lordpat is starting it
9:42:17 AM <bowser07> Really? cool.
9:42:48 AM <bowser07> If I wasn't still in grade 10 I might try to understand what you two are talking about in that maths topic.
9:43:03 AM <Shroom> well, what is grade 10 in Australia
9:43:42 AM <bowser07> What do you mean? Do you mean like what sort of maths do we learn?
9:44:14 AM <Shroom> no, but some countries are counting classes backwards lol (e.g. France)
9:44:52 AM <bowser07> that's wierd
9:45:02 AM <bowser07> I guess it makes sense though.
9:45:25 AM <bowser07> X years until I get to study what I want!
9:45:42 AM <Shroom> okay, do you know stuff like the binomial distribution?
9:47:48 AM <bowser07> nope
9:47:52 AM <bowser07> lol
9:47:54 AM <@B-O-T> lol
9:48:11 AM <bowser07> I probably don't pay as much attention in class as I should
9:48:50 AM <Shroom> or the Pythagorean theorem?
9:49:07 AM <bowser07> Yep, we've done that
9:50:11 AM <Shroom> and did you already hear of random variables and expectation values?
9:50:42 AM <bowser07> Of course!
9:52:04 AM <bowser07> I do a basic level of programming so I use that sort of thing a lot.
9:52:12 AM <Shroom> well, then I can explain to you what the strong law of large numbers is
9:53:23 AM <bowser07> OK. Can you tell me? It will probably help for next year or something.
9:54:50 AM <Shroom> given a sequence X_n of random values and their sums S_n, meaning S_n = X_1 + ... + X_n
9:55:18 AM <Shroom> and the X_n are all independent and identically distributed (e.g. independent coin throws or such)
9:55:42 AM <Shroom> and the expectation value of X_1 (and therefore of all the X_n) exists
9:55:45 AM <Shroom> then
9:56:14 AM <Shroom> the term (1/n) * S_n converges almost surely against the common expectation value E(X_1)
9:59:36 AM <Shroom> for example, if X_n is a single random experiment (hit or miss with probability p)
10:00:02 AM <Shroom> then S_n will count the total number of all hits, and (1/n) * S_n will be the relative hit rate
10:00:28 AM <Shroom> E(X_1) exists of course, and therefore (1/n) * S_n will approach to p
10:00:50 AM <spukikaze> i always thought that goran ni narimasu meant become a torpedo
10:00:55 AM <spukikaze> but it means to see
10:01:12 AM <bowser07> ...that we have a new topic for some reason
10:03:03 AM <bowser07> anyway, shroom is there anything else I need to know about the strong law of large numbers
10:03:37 AM <Shroom> well, it's the reason for the well-known "players fallacy"
10:03:59 AM <Shroom> if you think that when playing roulette, Black came 10 times in a row, then Red now must come for sure
10:04:07 AM <bowser07> isn't that like rigged results and
10:04:10 AM <bowser07> stuff
10:04:25 AM <bowser07> oh, never mind
10:04:25 AM <Shroom> but the strong law only says that the RELATIVE hit rate becomes more and more constant, not the ABSOLUTE one
10:04:41 AM <Shroom> the absolute difference between hits and misses will even rise
10:05:38 AM <bowser07> So that's just another way of saying the actual result will get closer to the expected result gradually but can also be otherwise, right?
10:06:05 AM <Shroom> well, imagine a chain of throwing a dice 6000 times
10:06:30 AM <bowser07> I know, it will not be 1000 1's
10:06:46 AM <Shroom> *calculates some numbers, pls wait*
10:07:40 AM <Shroom> it could be, but ... imagine this:
10:08:00 AM <Shroom> after 600 throws, you have 95 1's, that's 5 away from what you would expect
10:08:13 AM <Shroom> and the relative quote is 95/600 = 0,1583333...
10:08:34 AM <Shroom> and after 6000 throws, let's say you have 980 1's, 20 away
10:08:53 AM <Shroom> but the relative rate is 980 / 6000 = 0,16333..., much closer to 1/6 than it was after 600 throws
10:09:14 AM <bowser07> ...so I was right.
10:10:25 AM <Shroom> also when I've said that for the strong law the expectation values must exist ... do you want an example of a random valuable whose expectation value DOESN'T exist (aka it's infinite)?
10:11:08 AM <bowser07> sure. I haven't ever used infinity in probability stuff before so why not.
10:12:01 AM <Shroom> imagine an infinite chain of throwing coins, and you win if you hit the emblem
10:12:29 AM <Shroom> your capital is infinite, and you keep throwing the coin until you have a total win of 1 for the first time, and then you stop immediately
10:12:56 AM <Shroom> X counts the amount of tries you need to reach a total win of 1
10:13:10 AM <Shroom> and E(X) is infinite
10:16:00 AM <bowser07> but wouldn't you think that the probability of winning would be 1?
10:16:15 AM <bowser07> sorry that was probably a stupid thing to say wasn't it.
10:17:00 AM <bowser07> It's just that, with infinite tries, how could you not succeed eventually?
10:17:07 AM <Shroom> well, it's not stupid, the set on where you're defining X (aka the chains which reach a win of 1 at a time) is indeed 1
10:17:22 AM <Shroom> but reaching that win could take a very long time eventually
10:17:37 AM <bowser07> an infinite amount of time
10:17:46 AM <Shroom> expectation-wise
10:18:13 AM <spukikaze> estimate sqrt(56) to three decimal places without using a calculator :^)
10:18:19 AM <bowser07> now I get it. thanks.
10:18:34 AM <bowser07> um, something starting with 7
10:18:41 AM <Shroom> X is a so-called stopping time, and there's a theorem called "you can't beat the system"
10:19:29 AM <Shroom> it says that you can't transform a fair game into an advantageous game with any stopping strategy or strategy of changing inputs
10:19:32 AM <Shroom> under a certain premise
10:19:39 AM <spukikaze> you do sqrt(49+7), take out the seven, and make it 7 * (1+1/7)^(1/2) and you can just expand it using binomial theorem
10:19:40 AM <Shroom> and that is that your capital is finite
10:20:39 AM <spukikaze> Probability is cool because often it goes against common sense
10:23:14 AM <bowser07> like when?
10:23:24 AM <bowser07> wait never mind
10:23:34 AM <Shroom> well, I have another nice example of throwing coins
10:23:38 AM <bowser07> question 1 in the maths forum
10:24:09 AM <bowser07> the one about two people in a family
10:24:45 AM <bowser07> what's your example shroom
10:25:02 AM <Shroom> you keep throwing coins as long as you consecutively hit emblems
10:25:14 AM <Shroom> if you hit the number at the first time, you win $2
10:25:24 AM <Shroom> if you hit emblem and then number, you win $4
10:25:37 AM <Shroom> if you hit emblem, emblem and number, you win $8
10:25:39 AM <Shroom> got it?
10:25:45 AM <bowser07> yep
10:25:53 AM <bowser07> and it keeps continuing right
10:25:58 AM <Shroom> now, what shall be your input so it's a fair game
10:26:21 AM <bowser07> $0 seems fair to me.
10:26:33 AM <Shroom> lol
10:26:34 AM <@B-O-T> haha
10:26:58 AM <Shroom> the thing is that this is another case of an infinite expectation value
10:27:07 AM <bowser07> sorry. I need to go have dinner. I'll be on later.
10:27:30 AM <bowser07> Can you put this on the maths forum so I can try properly later?